I'm happy to report that George Kennan is, for the moment, alive and well, both in New Jersey and in the pages of the New Yorker, as reported by Jane Mayer. [article] Kennan, for those unfamiliar with the history of American foreign policy, coined the term "containment", which underpinned American foreign policy toward the Soviet Union for the better part of 40 years. So why is he relevant now? Perhaps it's this: Kennan was wise enough then to recognize that a war borne of fundamental ideological differences was ultimately unwinnable where nuclear weapons were involved; in the process of proving the supremacy of one ideological model over the other, the U.S and the U.S.S.R. would destroy each other, and the planet, many times over. The genius of Kennan's notion of containment was that, by avoiding head-to-head conflict between ideological opposites, there could be a sort of Darwinian natural selection among the ideologies. In the end, ironically, it was the ultimate capitalist solution -- let the market decide which ideology would become the new standard.

Which brings us to Iraq and why Kennan's notion remains relevant today. It is this: whether the opponent is communism or Islamic fundamentalism, a war borne of fundemental ideological differences remains unwinnable as long as weapons of mass destruction are involved. Simply put, we will not convince the Muslim Middle East that American pluralism is superior to native despotism or religious extremism simply by bombing Iraq into submission; the more likely result is that Iraq bombs Israel who then either counterattacks or doesn't counterattack, with neither response in our control. In either case, moreover, American intervention is mistaken for American imperialism (whether on behalf of Israel or for our own aggrandizement), which begets more fundamental extremism. Better that we contain Iraq while sponsoring (or initiating) efforts at pluralism elsewhere around the Muslim world, starting with Egypt and Jordon (and, farther east, Indonesia), but then expanding to include Iran and (someday) Saudi Arabia. As we saw with the Velvet Revolution in Eastern Europe, strategically-placed support for budding pluralism might result in a more complete downfall of fundamentalist Islam than we would ever achieve through superior military might.

Now, if only we could get Kennan an appointment with President Bush...