What I'm Pondering At the Moment
The New Criterion has an interesting article about demography. [link] The basic thesis is that while we in the Western world are worrying about social justice, pensions and healthcare, demographic trends among Muslims who don't share our "democratic values" call into question the viability of Western countries altogether, with the demographic end being closer than we think. As the article puts it,
If a population “at odds with the modern world” is the fastest-breeding group on the planet—if there are more Muslim nations, more fundamentalist Muslims within those nations, more and more Muslims within non-Muslim nations, and more and more Muslims represented in more and more transnational institutions—how safe a bet is the survival of the “modern world”?I'm not sure I agree with all of the assumptions in the piece, but the thesis is certainly provocative.
One quote, however, did grab my attention, which is why I am pondering the article. It is this:
Permanence is the illusion of every age. In 1913, no one thought the Russian, Austrian, German, and Turkish empires would be gone within half a decade. Seventy years on, all those fellows who dismissed Reagan as an “amiable dunce” (in Clark Clifford’s phrase) assured us the Soviet Union was likewise here to stay. The CIA analysts’ position was that East Germany was the ninth biggest economic power in the world. In 1987 there was no rash of experts predicting the imminent fall of the Berlin Wall, the Warsaw Pact, and the USSR itself.Rhetorically, it's an easy step from this kind of thinking to the author's conclusion, and in that sense, the thesis is compelling. But again, I'm still working it out.
Anyone care to contribute their own thoughts?
posted by Daniel at 11:47 PM
1 Comments:
Hindsight is 20/20 they say. While I love Mark Steyn (a very funny fellow who lives in New Hampshire, but rights primarily for English and Canadian newspapers) it's a trick to point out a few spectacular unforseen changes and go from there to the conclusion that predictions and expectations are typically unreliable. For example, in the worst markets there are still stocks that quickly double and then double again, and after they do, it is fairly easy to find reasons why they could have been expected to do so.
On Steyn's large point, about demography, he's correctly identifying the current trend, but predictions here may also be confounded. Birth rates are falling everywhere, even in less developed countries. Fundamentalists do have larger families, in general, and they may come to dominate the population, but fundamentalists are also under challenge from secularists and (I believe) suffer a lot of defections. But the wildcard (again, I believe)is changing life expectancies. We may achieve breakthroughs in aging control in the coming decades that will allow much longer productive lifespans. If European death rates decline, then lowered birthrates may not lead to a de-Europeanization of Europe.
Post a Comment
<< Home